A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis of ocular cancer secular trends in Iran from 2004 to 2016
Investigating secular trends of ocular cancer registration in Iran. After acquiring Iranian national population-based cancer registry data, trends of age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of ocular cancers and annual percent changes (APC) between 2004 and 2016 were analysed in age groups, gender, topography and morphology types with joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on incidence rates were estimated by age-period-cohort model. Geographic distribution of ASIR was assessed using GIS. Overall ASIR of ocular cancers was 16.04/100,000 (95% CI 15.77-16.32). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant increase of ASIR between 2004 and 2009 for males (APC = 5.5, 95% CI 0.9-10.2), ages over 50 years (APC = 5.2, 1.2-9.4), skin/canthus/adnexal cancers (APC = 4.2, 0.8-7.7), and carcinomas/adenocarcinomas (APC = 4.3, 0.6-8.1); however, between 2009 and 2016 a declining trend was observed in all investigated variables....
This study investigates the trends in ocular cancer incidence in Iran from 2004 to 2016 using national cancer registry data. Researchers analyzed age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and annual percent changes (APC) across different age groups, genders, cancer locations (topography), and cancer types (morphology) using joinpoint regression analysis. They also used an age-period-cohort model to estimate the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on incidence rates, and GIS to assess the geographic distribution of ASIR.
The study found an overall ASIR of ocular cancers to be 16.04/100,000. Joinpoint regression showed a significant increase in ASIR between 2004 and 2009 for males, those over 50, skin/canthus/adnexal cancers, and carcinomas/adenocarcinomas, but a declining trend from 2009 to 2016 in all these categories. Interestingly, the ASIR of retinoblastoma significantly increased throughout the entire period (2004-2016). The age-period-cohort analysis indicated that ocular cancer incidence rates significantly increased with age, time period, and birth cohort effects. ASIR varied geographically across Iran, ranging from 6.7/100,000 to 21.7/100,000.
In conclusion, the study revealed that, except for retinoblastoma, ocular cancer incidence trends in Iran were generally downward over the 13-year period, although there was an increasing trend between 2004 and 2009. The study also highlights the significant impact of aging on ASIR in Iran.
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